As we have seen in the past (USA Presidential Election 2008 – Early speculation for betting, trading and charts), in late November the Democratic party was favorite to win (1.50), the next US president would be a woman (1.78) and Hillary Clinton was a big favorite over Barack Obama (1.36). Yesterday it was the famous Super Tuesday as they call it, when a big number of states voted for the candidates of each party. Let's see at the time of writing (10:00am) how the odds have moved.

Starting with the party that will win the election in November 2008, we don't see any big change since the Democrats continue to be traded at 1.55.

Regarding the bet about the Democratic Candidate, Hillary Clinton continues to be a favorite (1.74) while Obama is trading at 2.22, but Clinton's chart is worth mentioning.

Let's examine the bet about whether next president of USA will be a male or female. Here we witness an outstanding inversion, since a female president was a favorite back in November (1.78), while now it is an outsider at 2.50!

Ok, I know what you are about to say, it isn't such a dramatic change. However, let's see how much of importance that is. If we check on the bet about who will the next President be, we see that Clinton is at 2.60, John McCain is at 2.86 and Obama is at 3.80. Notice though, either Clinton or Obama is about to be eliminated since she or he will lose the Democratic candidacy. If we take into account the fact that the bet about whether next president would be a female, the "Yes" option is an outsider, and since Clinton is favorite to be elected as the Democratic candidate, there is a disproportionate balance or the odds are speaking for themselves. In other words at this moment the most likely scenario according to the fixed odds is to have a final battle between Clinton and McCain, who will eventually be the winner. That is, power will be passed to Republicans. Watch out though, the bet on the winning party shows the Democrats as favorites as we have already seen!

Additionally, we should take a look at the Republicans candidates, where Rudolph Giuliani was favorite back in November at 2.34 and now has withdrawn his candidacy.

At the time of writing the big favorite is McCain (1.05), whose odds have been traded up to 36.00 at one point!

Big volatility, dramatic changes and we still have 10 months remaining until the final US elections. However, in my opinion we have already witnessed the biggest movements concerning the fixed odds, and as soon as the 2 final candidates for USA presidency are announced, the odds will not present any big movements.

In conclusion, the bets that are in favor of Clinton is that the Democrats will win (1.55), Clinton will be the Democratic Candidate (1.74) and for the time being she is the favorite for the presidency among all the candidates from both parties (2.60). The bets that are against her is that the next president will be a male (1.65) and McCain isn't that far away (2.86, although we should always have in mind that the odds will adapt when the 2 final candidates will be announced).

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