Betting on Academy Awards (Oscar) 2008

The Academy Awards or Oscars 2008 are to be presented on February 24th and the betting odds already offer good opportunities. Betfair have made all the awards available for betting or trading but 5 categories sum up the vast majority of the bets' liquidity. The Oscars are awarded in 2 weeks to the most talented actors, actresses, directors or film producers and other nominees. We don't have much time ahead of us, so let's take a look at betting patterns, odds and betfair charts. 2008 Oscar Predictions are also included from various websites and blogs.

Best motion picture of the year
"Atonement" (Focus Features) A Working Title Production: Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
"Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production) A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production: Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.) A Clayton Productions, LLC Production: Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production: Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production: JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

BetFirms.com Blog says: "Best Picture is a tough one this year, but Juno will likely take the cake on this one. The hot new cast and buzz worthy stripper-turned-screen writer (yep, it’s true) has caught everyone’s eye in the past few months. This fresh story has caught the attention of day time talk shows everywhere and it’s doubtful that it will lose any publicity in the next few weeks. Rivaled by Atonement and No Country for Old Men, the Grammy could very well be stolen by any one of these note worthy blockbusters."

BodogLife mentions: "We at Bodog Nation are hoping that the Coen brothers' dark, violent film No Country for Old Men will be given the Best Picture kudos it deserves. The film about a man who comes across the remains of a drug deal gone wrong, demonstrates what the Oscars should be all about: remarkable acting, superlative story telling and brilliant filmmaking."

Chet Harlow from Associated Content says: "Although you might hear rumblings about Juno (similar to Little Miss Sunshine the prior year) as a dark horse, it has no chance for the prize. Its presense in the top 5 is prize enough. Atonement is good, but just another stuffy British romance film. Michael Clayton is an intelligent film with a popular star (Clooney), but is not Best Picture worthy. That leaves No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. I give the nod to NCFOM since it had a larger release and bigger buzz than TWBB in December. The story is spellbinding, and Oscar loves the Coen brothers."

Locksmithsportpicks.com says: "While Juno has enough little quips to make a British guard crack a smile, I can’t exactly justify it as the picture of the year. No Country for Old Men is the huge favorite in this category. With the track records of producers Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, it is easy to see why."

Then comes:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

BetFirms.com Blog says: "The category for best actor is filled with actors that have likely seen this nomination coming from miles away. They act like they had no idea it was coming but we know that it’s all a big game. It must be because these guys are right on the money with their big hits this year; George Clooney for Michael Clayton, Johnny Depp in Sweeny Todd, and Daniel Day Lewis in There Will be Blood. I’d say Johnny Depp will probably come out on top of this category with his creepy role in Sweeny Tood. Creepy or not, this guy can act and he knows a thing or two about how to win awards. If anything, Daniel Day Lewis will steal this one away from him."

BodogLife mentions: "We predict that Johnny Depp will be overlooked because Sweeney Todd's musical genre with sing-song dialogue will most likely not be taken seriously enough for a Best Actor Oscar win, even though Depp's portrayal of the murderous barber was an impressive one. Moreover, although the world collectively love, love, loves Mr. Depp, we silently agree that we simply cannot forgive him for his vandalism of the character of Willy Wonka."

Chet Harlow from Associated Content says: "I regard this as a two-way race between Day-Lewis and Depp, with Lewis having a 100 step head start. Depp will get his someday soon, but nothing will stop Day-Lewis from claiming his prize for an uncompromising, brutal protrayal."

Locksmithsportpicks.com says: " I’m going with an upset here. Daniel Day-Lewis is certainly one of the finest actors actors of our time and has already taken home an Oscar in My Left Foot back in 1989 and has two more nominations, but I’m going with Johnny Depp here. The accomplished Depp has two prior nominations but no Oscar. I like him to break through with his work in Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."

Next is:

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

BetFirms.com Blog says: "Best Supporting Actor is most likely going to go home with Javier Bardem from No Country for Old Men. Born in Spain, Bardem has a diverse acting background that has already lead him to receive an Academy Award nomination once before (2000) and it’s likely that he’ll soon be the proud owner of not only the nomination but the coveted award. This Frankenstein-like man will scare you shitless every time he appears on screen but he’s got that “it-factor” that will likely snag this award."

BodogLife mentions: "In No Country for Old Men, Javier Bardem plays a psychopathic contract killer who is, essentially, the puppet-master of everyone's fate. He is eerily calm and in control while he's murdering, and even if his acting is due to the brilliant haircut, he will take the Oscar for sure."

Locksmithsportpicks.com says: " No Country for Old Men gets another one here with Javier Bardem. He had a leading role nomination back in 2000 in Before Night Falls and this time he will take home the Oscar. He truly made this film."

Finally:

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal)
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in "Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production)

BetFirms.com Blog says: "And the Juno buzz continues. Best actess will undeniably go to new actress, Ellen Page from Juno. She might be new to this scene but she looked like a natural in this film, depicting the laid back, high school student that gets pregnant accidentally. The young starlet will turn 21 just days before the awards show airs and it’s likely her birthday present will be that infamous gold plated Grammy. My guess is she’ll be toasting a little champagne to that."

BodogLife mentions: "The young, Canadian actress Sarah Polley has made her first serious mark on the world of cinema with her directorial debut, Away From Her. Although Polley missed the Best Director nod, she did receive a best adapted screenplay nomination for her work transferring the Alice Munro short story to the screen. And Julie Christie, who plays the role of a woman whose marriage is wedged apart by Alzheimer's when she begins to see another man at the treatment center she moves to, has earned a Best Actress nomination."

Chet Harlow from Associated Content says: "Although Blanchett is an acting goddess, this is not her best work. Not enough people saw Cotillard and Linney in their art house films. That leaves Christie and Page. Although it would be a feel-good story for the young Page to win for the uplifting Juno, Christie was just too good in Away from Her. In addition, after Christie won in 1966 for Darling, she was nominated three times - and came up empty each time. She's due, and she was great in this role."

Locksmithsportpicks.com says: " I’m taking an underdog here as well. Juno received too much attention to walk away empty handed and Ellen Page certainly brought home the bacon, so to speak, in this interesting, light-heated film."

3 clear favorites in the first 3 Oscar Nominations, but a strange betting behaviour in the last one. Julie Christie's odds are available at 1.60 but the Betfair graph shows a drifting trend which might say that Marion Cotillard is about to surprise the crowds. While the odds for her are at 3.20, the downtrend looks promising. What's more, most tipsters as we read pick Elen Page as the winner! This one is going to be quite interesting!

The liquidity obviously isn't there and conclusions are not to be made safely at this point. Yet, it is always best to be prepared early, so that if we decide to bet on Academy Awards 2008, we know what we are doing.

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