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 So your betting system performs pretty well, you are completely satisfied by your winnings but you are worried about the common losing runs you experience from time to time. Should you worry? What is the maximum expected losing run you would encounter in the future? How many bets should you be happy to lose in a row? It is always better to be prepared for the expected events, since the unexpected ones are rare after all.
- I had a losing run of 10 bets. Is it normal?
Mathematics
will be used here and Excel will help us. We create a new excel sheet and we
type in any cell the following:
=ROUND(LN(Sample)/-LN((1-probability)),0)
Sample is
the total number of bets we examine and probability is the %probability those
bets could be losing bets. For example, let's say we have placed 100 bets at
2.00 odds, so the theoretical probability is 50% (0.50). The above calculation
would result to 7. That means that the maximum of losing (or winning) bets
would be 7.As long as we continue to bet, we see that this number keeps getting
bigger. If for instance we try for 1,000 bets, the above equation would
calculate the losing run to 10.
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- My losing run was 15, way ahead
of 7. What does that mean?
That means
that the submitted bets didn't have 50% probability to win but smaller. In
other words we are mistaken in calculation of the theoretical probability, we
do something wrong. On the other hand, if that was a winning run, then the real
probability would be a lot bigger than 50%.
- I had a run of 5 losing bets,
then had a winning bet, and right afterwards another run of 6 losing bets.
Should I consider that a run of 11 losing bets?
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No. The above equation calculates only the maximum run of individual winning or losing bets. Even one single different outcome is enough to end the specific run. In the future, we will discuss about the maximum expected drawdown of our bankroll depending on our betting system and
the money management/staking plan we apply to our betting.
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My name is Jimmakos and I am a full time Gambler. I started playing blackjack in 2003 in the local casino until I wasn't allowed to enter. During the following 2.5 years I traded the UK Horse Racing markets in Betfair.com. Nowadays I'm playing poker online mainly at 