Long term Forex trading is all about entering the market when the trading trend is established. Regarding EUR/USD the uptrend started in mid-April and continues to drive the currency pair to even higher highs. This week the Euro bounced off a previous resistance level, verifying at the same time the support trend line. All trading signals indicate that EUR/USD is expected to climb above 1.4338, which was the latest resistance level of the uptrend. However, since the uptrend is now 2 months old, is it too late to buy the Euro? Was 1.4338 really the highest high the EUR/USD would reach retracing to lower prices?
I believe a rather safe trade would be to buy Euro now and sell around the 1.43 mark. In that case if indeed the currency pair can't break the resistance level and retraces, we would come out as winners. Another possible variation of this Forex trade is to close out half of our position, so that if Eur/Usd continues to rise, we are still in the market winning more pips. A logical stop loss should be 1.40 or a few pips below that, indicating that the uptrend has lost speed and strength. So, if we buy at 1.4150 and are prepared to sell either at 1.43 or 1.40, we are betting on 1:1 odds. We just want to be successful more than 50% of the times we execute such a trade. I think Euro is more likely to hit 1.43 than retrace to 1.40 at this point.
Euro / USD Daily Chart
If you are on the other hand pessimistic about the Euro, you should be waiting for a EUR/USD high lower than 1.4300 to indicate a possible retracement. Again though there are more trading indicators that the Eur/Usd is in an uptrend rather than in a retracement phase. There is also a possibility that the Euro will enter a trading channel between 1.40 and 1.43 but at the moment there is no signal indicating such a development.
Euro / USD 5-min Chart
Today Euro gained 200 pips against the US dollar and looking at that 5-min graph a forex trader must have got a good excuse to enter a selling order at this point!
My name is Jimmakos and I am a professional gambler since 2003. I played at the casinos' blackjack tables for a year and during the following 2.5 years I have been a Betfair trader trading the odds in the UK Horse Racing markets. Nowadays I'm playing online poker. Apart from online gambling, I also write about online poker and trading for the Betfair's Greek Blog and own various websites.