It just doesn't seem to get any easier, juggling everything and trying to find time to post selections on here as well.
This has been one of the best punting weeks I've ever enjoyed, with thousands finding their way to my various accounts. I've had it off on each way bets and a couple of massive placepots, which I've only just started getting involved in. Unfortunately, what with work and family I just haven't had time to post on here.
I will have to have a think about this blog, but I think it may have run its course.
Personally I think I've made a point. Over a 12 month plus period I've achieved a decent profit and a 35% strike rate of successful, profitable bets. That only includes the bets shown on here. Other bets not included for a variety of reasons have enhanced my profitability significantly.
I have also come in to contact with a few really good people. I have to admit that one or two have helped me and for that I am grateful. Whilst I think I'm fairly intelligent and certainly a lot smarter than the vast majority of punters, I am happy to take on board advice from other successful punters.
I will have a think about things, but for now that's that.
Good luck and happy, wealthy punting.
Sunday, 1 June 2008
Monday, 26 May 2008
Every horse I backed ran well today
MONDAY 26th MAY REVIEW
although I ended up slightly down on the blog account. And it all started of so well with INDIAN DAYS winning easily! Next up was Hula Ballew, backed as if defeat was out of the question, who traded very short before failing to land a real blow. At first I wasn't sure Hula Ballew had held on for third, but I needn't have worried. Then there was the Zetland Cup, well did you pick the winner out? I couldn't have pulled that one out of the bag if you'd given me another five attepts. Looking at a re-run of the race it looks like a lot of the "doubtful stayers" finished close up, indeed the time was slowish and there certainly wasn't the end to end gallop I'd expected.
I won't be betting tomorrow so the next update will probably be on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
Daily P/L -60.00
Acc P/L +2,492.57............................................+24.92 points
although I ended up slightly down on the blog account. And it all started of so well with INDIAN DAYS winning easily! Next up was Hula Ballew, backed as if defeat was out of the question, who traded very short before failing to land a real blow. At first I wasn't sure Hula Ballew had held on for third, but I needn't have worried. Then there was the Zetland Cup, well did you pick the winner out? I couldn't have pulled that one out of the bag if you'd given me another five attepts. Looking at a re-run of the race it looks like a lot of the "doubtful stayers" finished close up, indeed the time was slowish and there certainly wasn't the end to end gallop I'd expected.
I won't be betting tomorrow so the next update will probably be on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
Daily P/L -60.00
Acc P/L +2,492.57............................................+24.92 points
The Zetland Gold Cup
MONDAY 26th MAY 2008
looks a cracking renewal this year with plenty of horses coming out of some of last year's really hot handicaps to take each other on today. A real puzzle for punters but worth getting stuck in to in my opinion. I'm putting up one or two thoughts on here with my bets on the race and then any other selections for the day will be on here later.
Fragrancy - too short and there has to be a doubt about the trip
Monte Alto - arguably sets the standard, but too high in the weights for me
Smart Instinct - good form last year, matches the best of these at today's weights, good effort last time out behind Folk Opera, although would prefer at least one victory at this trip in a decent handicap
Heaven Knows - surely wants the rains to come, which we're told won't happen
Docofthebay - cracking form last year, but with concerns over the trip and possibly in the grip of the handicapper
First Buddy - not good enough and may prefer a bit of cut
Jewelled Dagger - not good enough and possibly won't get home
Re Barolo - I can't weigh this one up at all - could be the fly in the ointment
Smart Enough - Looks a miler to me
Snoqualmie Boy - looks fairly handicapped and has (old) form in the bag to make him a contender here
Yarqus - has some cracking form to name and chance at the weights but I prefer others
Grand Passion - Too old and probably needs to go back to the all weather for a better chance of winning, previous turf wins have been over shorter
Rio River - reasonably handicapped but surely better off over a mile with cut in the ground
Capable Guest & Fort Churchill - not shown anything to suggest they can be competitive in this race
So with a strong pace likely and plenty of the runners looking as though they may struggle to get the trip my selections are as follows:
350 Redcar - RE BAROLO 0.5 point each way @ 12-1
350 Redcar - SNOQUALMIE BOY 0.5 point each way @ 22-1
350 Redcar - SMART INSTINCT 0.5 point each way @ 13-2
I know it's unusual to back three in one race but that's my way of dealing with this puzzle. I will post in a couple of hours if I'm backing anything else.
Back at 2pm before racing commences with two further bets. Over at Carlisle I think we've found a jolly to take on with a proven yardstick, a winner in this grade at this trip and off this sort of weight. Everything looks set for
325 Carlisle - HULA BALLEW 1 point eachway @ 7-2
to run a very big race and I will be hugely disappointed if this horse doesn't at least make the frame.
A touch earlier, back at Redcar, there is a decent enough looking handicap in which I think Wragg's is worth opposing. The obvoius form line to look at is the one in which
315 Redcar - INDIAN DAYS 0.5 point each way @ 9-2
finished in front of a couple of today's rivals. I do not agree with the general view that Indian Days will not confirm the form. I believe if he settles a touch better, then the slightly shorter trip than last time will work in his favour.
Back later to update the account for what is a busy day.
looks a cracking renewal this year with plenty of horses coming out of some of last year's really hot handicaps to take each other on today. A real puzzle for punters but worth getting stuck in to in my opinion. I'm putting up one or two thoughts on here with my bets on the race and then any other selections for the day will be on here later.
Fragrancy - too short and there has to be a doubt about the trip
Monte Alto - arguably sets the standard, but too high in the weights for me
Smart Instinct - good form last year, matches the best of these at today's weights, good effort last time out behind Folk Opera, although would prefer at least one victory at this trip in a decent handicap
Heaven Knows - surely wants the rains to come, which we're told won't happen
Docofthebay - cracking form last year, but with concerns over the trip and possibly in the grip of the handicapper
First Buddy - not good enough and may prefer a bit of cut
Jewelled Dagger - not good enough and possibly won't get home
Re Barolo - I can't weigh this one up at all - could be the fly in the ointment
Smart Enough - Looks a miler to me
Snoqualmie Boy - looks fairly handicapped and has (old) form in the bag to make him a contender here
Yarqus - has some cracking form to name and chance at the weights but I prefer others
Grand Passion - Too old and probably needs to go back to the all weather for a better chance of winning, previous turf wins have been over shorter
Rio River - reasonably handicapped but surely better off over a mile with cut in the ground
Capable Guest & Fort Churchill - not shown anything to suggest they can be competitive in this race
So with a strong pace likely and plenty of the runners looking as though they may struggle to get the trip my selections are as follows:
350 Redcar - RE BAROLO 0.5 point each way @ 12-1
350 Redcar - SNOQUALMIE BOY 0.5 point each way @ 22-1
350 Redcar - SMART INSTINCT 0.5 point each way @ 13-2
I know it's unusual to back three in one race but that's my way of dealing with this puzzle. I will post in a couple of hours if I'm backing anything else.
Back at 2pm before racing commences with two further bets. Over at Carlisle I think we've found a jolly to take on with a proven yardstick, a winner in this grade at this trip and off this sort of weight. Everything looks set for
325 Carlisle - HULA BALLEW 1 point eachway @ 7-2
to run a very big race and I will be hugely disappointed if this horse doesn't at least make the frame.
A touch earlier, back at Redcar, there is a decent enough looking handicap in which I think Wragg's is worth opposing. The obvoius form line to look at is the one in which
315 Redcar - INDIAN DAYS 0.5 point each way @ 9-2
finished in front of a couple of today's rivals. I do not agree with the general view that Indian Days will not confirm the form. I believe if he settles a touch better, then the slightly shorter trip than last time will work in his favour.
Back later to update the account for what is a busy day.
Sunday, 25 May 2008
A bit of a gamble
SUNDAY 25th MAY 2008 REVIEW
from 33-1 in to as short as 11-1, so I wasn't the only one to think PUSEY STREET LADY had a chance, but it never looked like being landed. I make no apologies for picking her out though, I think with conditions in her favour she's more than capable of winning a race like today's. I concede that she may need to come down the handicap a bit first though.
The race I played in today has got me thinking about prices again. Sometimes I think I must be seeing things with punters piling in to short priced favourites in these competitive looking handicaps, especially the sprints. But it happens again and again, horses being backed in to crazy prices before finishing unplaced. Then you get the opposite set of circumstances, a race lacking an real depth with another short priced favourite, the "form" pick at somewhere between 5-2 and 5-1, and you have 8 or more runners so an each way bet is an absolute gift. People say to me "well you're backing plenty of 3-1 shots, what's the difference?" I would have thought it was obvious, backing a 3-1 shot that should really be 2-1 or shorter is a tiny bit smarter than backing a 3-1 shot that should be at least 5's. I know I didn't pick the winner in today's race, but it's worth looking for long shots in these types of races. The price of today's winner, at least 25-1 I think, makes the point adequately.
I'm off to have a look at tomorrow's cards.
Daily P/L -50.00
Acc P/L +2,552.57...........................................+25.52 points
from 33-1 in to as short as 11-1, so I wasn't the only one to think PUSEY STREET LADY had a chance, but it never looked like being landed. I make no apologies for picking her out though, I think with conditions in her favour she's more than capable of winning a race like today's. I concede that she may need to come down the handicap a bit first though.
The race I played in today has got me thinking about prices again. Sometimes I think I must be seeing things with punters piling in to short priced favourites in these competitive looking handicaps, especially the sprints. But it happens again and again, horses being backed in to crazy prices before finishing unplaced. Then you get the opposite set of circumstances, a race lacking an real depth with another short priced favourite, the "form" pick at somewhere between 5-2 and 5-1, and you have 8 or more runners so an each way bet is an absolute gift. People say to me "well you're backing plenty of 3-1 shots, what's the difference?" I would have thought it was obvious, backing a 3-1 shot that should really be 2-1 or shorter is a tiny bit smarter than backing a 3-1 shot that should be at least 5's. I know I didn't pick the winner in today's race, but it's worth looking for long shots in these types of races. The price of today's winner, at least 25-1 I think, makes the point adequately.
I'm off to have a look at tomorrow's cards.
Daily P/L -50.00
Acc P/L +2,552.57...........................................+25.52 points
Cape is currently 3-1
SUNDAY 25th MAY 2008
favourite for the 6f Class 2 handicap at Newmarket. Right now I'm taking a bit of a chance that the going is not firm as predicted in the Racing Post. Assuming I've got it right (first gamble of today) and the conditions are good or possibly softer, then I think there's one in this race which is over priced. Last time out my selection was beaten about 3.5 lengths by today's jolly, but is 5lb better off today. Plenty of if's and but's, but if the ground is softer than predicted I think my bet could go well at a huge price, today re-united with Joe Fanning who rode her to victory at Docaster in March. I also think BABY STRANGE has a good chance but he is as short as 5-1, so I'll take a small chance on
405 Newmarket - PUSEY STREET LADY 0.25 point each way @ 33-1
Not my biggest ever bet, but then of course it's not my strongest ever fancy.
Back later to update the account.
favourite for the 6f Class 2 handicap at Newmarket. Right now I'm taking a bit of a chance that the going is not firm as predicted in the Racing Post. Assuming I've got it right (first gamble of today) and the conditions are good or possibly softer, then I think there's one in this race which is over priced. Last time out my selection was beaten about 3.5 lengths by today's jolly, but is 5lb better off today. Plenty of if's and but's, but if the ground is softer than predicted I think my bet could go well at a huge price, today re-united with Joe Fanning who rode her to victory at Docaster in March. I also think BABY STRANGE has a good chance but he is as short as 5-1, so I'll take a small chance on
405 Newmarket - PUSEY STREET LADY 0.25 point each way @ 33-1
Not my biggest ever bet, but then of course it's not my strongest ever fancy.
Back later to update the account.
Saturday, 24 May 2008
It's all about the prices
FRIDAY 23rd MAY 2008 REVIEW
First of all a quick look back at Friday's bet, my favourite kind of bet. A really solid form pick at an acceptable price for an each way bet against a short priced jolly. I know yesterday the jolly showed that the potential was real and people will say "a winner's a winner", but I look at it differently. Ten bets on horses like AMANDA CARTER will show a long term profit and that's what matters. I would also point out to the one or two of you that have emailed me criticising my selection process that AMANDA CARTER was backed at odds of 1-2 on before losing out to the favourite. Furthermore, I am not here for your benefit. I do this as a way of proving something to myself. I am simply a part time punter who makes betting profitable and how many punters can say that. I think a strike rate of profitable bets in the region of 35% over a 12 month period is pretty respectable. If that doesn't float your boat then don't read the blog!
SATURDAY 24th MAY 2008
I hadn't planned to bet today. I fancied a couple of horses but they were too short for me so I decided to sit back and watch without any of my money being carried. Many of you will understand how I came to fancy FOLK OPERA, having won a few quid when she won last time out over a shorter trip. Today's trip looked likely to benefit her and with the non-runner because of the ground I thought she was a worthy favourite. But there's no way I wanted to get involved at 6-4. But to my surprise she was pushed out to 2-1 and bigger on the exchanges so I quickly turned on the lap top and had a few quid on. Whilst I don't bang on about value and prices, I do think punters have to have guidelines to work to if they want to have any chance of being successful. For me, today in that race, 2-1+ was an acceptable price so the bet was struck.
235 Haydock - FOLK OPERA 1 point win @ 2-1
A similar thing happened later on the same card. Most readers of this blog will know that I don't tend to bet in sprint races unless it's at one of the big meetings in the better class races. With a bit of time to kill I looked through the form of the runners in the Temple Stakes and got fairly excited about possibly "finding one" in the form of FLEETING SPIRIT. I went back through the form a couple of times and decided to back Noseda's filly if I could get an each way bet to nothing (4-1+). Unfortunately when I checked the prices 11-4 was the offer so I left her alone. I sat back prepared to watch without any financial involvement and then the drift started. On the exchange I ended up having 200 at just over 9-2. In all honesty I planned to trade it back in running at half the price for a free bet, but FLEETING SPIRIT travelled so well and never looked in any danger so I let it ride. I have only ever once previously counted bets on the blog account that were not posted pre-race and that was because I had posted my thoughts on an exchange forum pre-race.
335 Haydock - FLEETING SPIRIT 2 points win @ 9-2+
I have pasted the bets I placed on FLEETING SPIRIT and as you can see it was pretty close to the off, which unfortunately meant I didn't have time to put it up on here. Perhaps in future I will post my thoughts and put up the prices at which I am betting. It really comes down to time and priorities and this blog is not top of my list I am afraid. At the moment it's family, work, punting, socialising and then the blog.
I am not 100% sure how long this blog will continue because of the time it takes up and the fact that I need to have access to the internet to be able to update it. In addition I have to admit that I have been asked to provide my selections on a pay as you go basis. Nothing is decided yet so for the time being I will carry on.
Bet as placed with Ref ID and balance removed
2008-05-24
15:40 2008-05-24
15:37 GB Hayd 24th May / 15:35 5f Grp2 / Fleeting Spirit
Back 6.13 100.00 Won 513.33
2008-05-24
15:40 2008-05-24
15:30 GB Hayd 24th May / 15:35 5f Grp2 / Fleeting Spirit
Back 5.60 100.00 Won 460.00
Daily P/L +1,082.58 (includes small loss from Friday's bet)
Acc P/L +2,602.57........................................+26.02 points
First of all a quick look back at Friday's bet, my favourite kind of bet. A really solid form pick at an acceptable price for an each way bet against a short priced jolly. I know yesterday the jolly showed that the potential was real and people will say "a winner's a winner", but I look at it differently. Ten bets on horses like AMANDA CARTER will show a long term profit and that's what matters. I would also point out to the one or two of you that have emailed me criticising my selection process that AMANDA CARTER was backed at odds of 1-2 on before losing out to the favourite. Furthermore, I am not here for your benefit. I do this as a way of proving something to myself. I am simply a part time punter who makes betting profitable and how many punters can say that. I think a strike rate of profitable bets in the region of 35% over a 12 month period is pretty respectable. If that doesn't float your boat then don't read the blog!
SATURDAY 24th MAY 2008
I hadn't planned to bet today. I fancied a couple of horses but they were too short for me so I decided to sit back and watch without any of my money being carried. Many of you will understand how I came to fancy FOLK OPERA, having won a few quid when she won last time out over a shorter trip. Today's trip looked likely to benefit her and with the non-runner because of the ground I thought she was a worthy favourite. But there's no way I wanted to get involved at 6-4. But to my surprise she was pushed out to 2-1 and bigger on the exchanges so I quickly turned on the lap top and had a few quid on. Whilst I don't bang on about value and prices, I do think punters have to have guidelines to work to if they want to have any chance of being successful. For me, today in that race, 2-1+ was an acceptable price so the bet was struck.
235 Haydock - FOLK OPERA 1 point win @ 2-1
A similar thing happened later on the same card. Most readers of this blog will know that I don't tend to bet in sprint races unless it's at one of the big meetings in the better class races. With a bit of time to kill I looked through the form of the runners in the Temple Stakes and got fairly excited about possibly "finding one" in the form of FLEETING SPIRIT. I went back through the form a couple of times and decided to back Noseda's filly if I could get an each way bet to nothing (4-1+). Unfortunately when I checked the prices 11-4 was the offer so I left her alone. I sat back prepared to watch without any financial involvement and then the drift started. On the exchange I ended up having 200 at just over 9-2. In all honesty I planned to trade it back in running at half the price for a free bet, but FLEETING SPIRIT travelled so well and never looked in any danger so I let it ride. I have only ever once previously counted bets on the blog account that were not posted pre-race and that was because I had posted my thoughts on an exchange forum pre-race.
335 Haydock - FLEETING SPIRIT 2 points win @ 9-2+
I have pasted the bets I placed on FLEETING SPIRIT and as you can see it was pretty close to the off, which unfortunately meant I didn't have time to put it up on here. Perhaps in future I will post my thoughts and put up the prices at which I am betting. It really comes down to time and priorities and this blog is not top of my list I am afraid. At the moment it's family, work, punting, socialising and then the blog.
I am not 100% sure how long this blog will continue because of the time it takes up and the fact that I need to have access to the internet to be able to update it. In addition I have to admit that I have been asked to provide my selections on a pay as you go basis. Nothing is decided yet so for the time being I will carry on.
Bet as placed with Ref ID and balance removed
2008-05-24
15:40 2008-05-24
15:37 GB Hayd 24th May / 15:35 5f Grp2 / Fleeting Spirit
Back 6.13 100.00 Won 513.33
2008-05-24
15:40 2008-05-24
15:30 GB Hayd 24th May / 15:35 5f Grp2 / Fleeting Spirit
Back 5.60 100.00 Won 460.00
Daily P/L +1,082.58 (includes small loss from Friday's bet)
Acc P/L +2,602.57........................................+26.02 points
Friday, 23 May 2008
One bet this evening
FRIDAY 23rd MAY 2008
for me. I think the jolly in the 10 furlong handicap may be worth taking on. Whilst I agree that on breeding the trip shouldn't be a problem, I will always side with form in the bag over potential. There doesn't look to be too much strength in depth to this race, unless a few have been "messing about" and the solid one with the best form over this trip on this type of ground has to be
700 Pontefract - AMANDA CARTER 1.5 points each way @ 7-2
A small downside if placed looks the best way to attack this race, with this being one of those ocassions where the high street is offering better value than the exchanges.
I'll be back tomorrow morning with an update and any selections for Saturday's racing.
for me. I think the jolly in the 10 furlong handicap may be worth taking on. Whilst I agree that on breeding the trip shouldn't be a problem, I will always side with form in the bag over potential. There doesn't look to be too much strength in depth to this race, unless a few have been "messing about" and the solid one with the best form over this trip on this type of ground has to be
700 Pontefract - AMANDA CARTER 1.5 points each way @ 7-2
A small downside if placed looks the best way to attack this race, with this being one of those ocassions where the high street is offering better value than the exchanges.
I'll be back tomorrow morning with an update and any selections for Saturday's racing.
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
Bollocks
Not my words, although I share the thought. It was actually John Dunlop who surprised all with his comment just after it was announced that Sandown was being abandoned because of unsafe ground. And this on the back of Ayr also being called off for the very same reason. You couldn't make it up could you?
So that put paid to my racing bet. Well I thought things were turning out okay in the end when John Terry stepped up to take his penalty and (I thought) win the final on penalties for Chelsea, thus giving me a profit on the day. How wrong I was. JT did a Beckham and slipped as he hit his shot and that was that really. Despite trading long odds on it wasn't to be.
I won't be betting tomorrow so the next update will be for Friday's racing.
Daily P/L -100.00
Acc P/L +1,519.99.................................+15.19 points
So that put paid to my racing bet. Well I thought things were turning out okay in the end when John Terry stepped up to take his penalty and (I thought) win the final on penalties for Chelsea, thus giving me a profit on the day. How wrong I was. JT did a Beckham and slipped as he hit his shot and that was that really. Despite trading long odds on it wasn't to be.
I won't be betting tomorrow so the next update will be for Friday's racing.
Daily P/L -100.00
Acc P/L +1,519.99.................................+15.19 points
Just before I sit down
and watch the footie tonight I'm hoping to have backed a winner. I think the jolly is worth taking on and
735 Sandown - TAJWEED 1 point each way
is my way of taking it on. Something around 3-1 or possibly a bit bigger would be acceptable.
As far as the footie goes, well I think Man Utd play the more attractive game, but from a betting point of view I think there's value in backing Chelsea at the prices and with their record against the reds.
Champions League Final - CHELSEA 1 point win
Back later to update the figures.
735 Sandown - TAJWEED 1 point each way
is my way of taking it on. Something around 3-1 or possibly a bit bigger would be acceptable.
As far as the footie goes, well I think Man Utd play the more attractive game, but from a betting point of view I think there's value in backing Chelsea at the prices and with their record against the reds.
Champions League Final - CHELSEA 1 point win
Back later to update the figures.
Action today
WEDNESDAY 21st MAY 2008
at Goodwood but my betting will take place at Sandown this eveing. I will update on here by around 6.00pm.
at Goodwood but my betting will take place at Sandown this eveing. I will update on here by around 6.00pm.
Monday, 19 May 2008
Next bet
MONDAY 19th & TUESDAY 20th MAY
will most likely be on Wednesday, so a quiet couple of days to start the week. Until then, keep smiling and good luck.
will most likely be on Wednesday, so a quiet couple of days to start the week. Until then, keep smiling and good luck.
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